How Many Points USMNT Needs To Qualify For The 2022 World Cup
Here You will Now How Many Points USMNT Needs To Qualify For The 2022 World Cup. After the debacle of failing to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, the focus and attention on the US men’s national team qualification efforts for Qatar 2022 have been greater than ever. What was once taken for granted is now a source of constant anxiety. As we near the end of Concacaf qualifying, we explain exactly what the USMNT needs to qualify for the 2022 World Cup.
Qualification for the 2022 Concacaf World Cup, at least for the US, consists of a single round-robin group stage against seven other Concacaf nations. The USMNT plays seven home and seven away games over the course of seven months, a schedule condensed by the Covid-19 pandemic. The top three teams qualify for the Qatar World Cup, while the fourth-place team enters a single-match playoff against the top team from Oceania.
Here’s the latest on what USMNT needs to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, which we’ll update during the qualification process.
What USMNT Needs To Qualify For World Cup 2022
Through Jan. 31
The US currently sits second in the eight-team group with 21 points, four behind Canada. Mexico is tied on points only on goal difference (+9 to +6), followed by Panama with 17 and fifth place Costa Rica close behind with 16.
Jamaica and Honduras are eliminated while El Salvador can only reach fourth place. Canada is assured of at least finishing fourth.
With three games remaining, the US is in a decent spot. While there are numerous permutations in play, the USMNT still controls its own destiny.
How Many Points USMNT Needs To Qualify For World Cup 2022
If the USMNT wins, it will go to Qatar, simple as that. Of course, that is easier said than done. How many points does the USMNT need to qualify is a more difficult question to answer.
The teams behind the US have no more games left against each other, but Costa Rica and Panama still play Canada, which has yet to lose. The United States has a bit of breathing room, currently five points ahead of fifth place, the first place to go home. Even fourth place is almost as good as ranking this year because even Oceania’s best team, New Zealand, is ranked 110th in the world, while the lowest-ranked team at this Concacaf qualifying stage is Honduras in 76th (the US is currently 11th).
In October, I calculated the estimated total points needed to qualify directly to be 21.2, with 18.4 needed to finish fourth. Based on those calculations, the USMNT may already have enough points to qualify for Qatar.
But those calculations were based on historical results. Based on recent events, the top of the table is more clustered. This means that one more point might be more than enough or it might not be enough.
Currently, the pace of the top four is as follows with points per game and total points estimated based on results so far.
Concacaf World Cup Qualifying Points Per Game (Extrapolated Points After 14 Games)
- Canada — 2.27 (31.82)
- United States — 1.91 (26.73)
- Mexico — 1.91 (26.73)
- Panama — 1.55 (21.64)
- Costa Rica — 1.45 (20.36)
- El Salvador — 0.82 (11.45)
- Jamaica — 0.64 (8.91)
- Honduras — 0.27 (3.81)
Based on this, the USMNT should do better than Costa Rica’s pace of 1.45, which would extrapolate to 20.36, or about 20 points. To qualify directly (top 3), the US would need 22 points. Based on that ratio, the US may have enough to secure a place in the top four while a tie would be enough for a place in the top three. The United States is on track to record one win and two draws, though road trips to Mexico and Costa Rica will make it difficult.
Again, this is all based on teams following their current form. If we did that the rest of the way, there would be no need to continue with ranked. With just three games to go, the end is in sight and there is a direct path to Qatar for the US.
We can definitely calculate the maximum number of points needed based on the potential results, as shown below. The data below means the number of points required as a minimum to qualify for the World Cup. It is possible that the US will qualify without recording a single point in the rest of the calendar, however unlikely.
What USMNT Needs To Qualify For World Cup 2022
- Games Remaining: 3
- Points Available: 9
- Max Points Needed For Top 3: 6
- Likely Points Needed For Top 3: 3
- Max Points Needed For Top 4: 4
Because the USMNT plays the two teams fighting for fourth place, calculating the scenarios is pretty straightforward. If the US beats Panama at home on March 27 in Orlando, Florida, and Costa Rica fails to win the remaining three games, the USMNT books its trip to Qatar. If the US loses to Panama, it could need up to six points to qualify. A tie against Panama is only good enough if Panama stumbles elsewhere or if the United States can pick up points in Mexico and/or Costa Rica.
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The USA currently has the advantage on goal difference, though that will shrink if the points get closer. Both Panama and Costa Rica are due to play top-table Canada, but the Canucks are almost through and likely won’t need any more points by the time they play Panama on the final day of qualifying.
The USMNT does not want to go into its final match needing a result, as World Cup qualification ends with a trip to Costa Rica, a place where the US has never earned a point in a World Cup qualifying match. of the final round. The last time the United States earned a point from Costa Rica in World Cup qualifying was in 1986 when a 1-1 draw was not enough to save the USMNT from elimination in the first round of Concacaf qualifying.
Check back here for the entire Concacaf World Cup qualification process as we explain what the USMNT needs to qualify for the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022.
