Premier League Odds and Predictions
Now that we’re nearly a month into the 2023-24 season of the English Premier League, we’re starting to get a good look at what teams could be real and what teams could be afterthoughts (I’m looking at you, Luton Town). While quite a bit of movement can happen in either direction over the course of a 38-match season—we’re barely one-tenth of the way through the campaign—here’s a look at what’s happened during the past month, with trends and storylines to keep an eye on moving forward.
Manchester City
To nobody’s surprise, Man City again looks like the class of the Premier League. They became just the third team in the history of the Premier League to win three consecutive titles last season, and they’re the runaway favorites to become the first club to win four in a row this year, listed as high as -225 at various PayPal Betting Sites.
There was no championship hangover for Man City after they claimed the Premier League, FA Cup, and UEFA Champions League titles this past season, as they’ve hit the ground running with four straight wins to open the year.
They didn’t have an easy offseason, either. The reigning champions are always going to get picked over as other clubs try to bolster their rosters with a hint of that winning magic, and Man City lost club captain and heartbeat Ilkay Gundogan to FC Barcelona, as well as winger Riyad Mahrez to the Saudi Pro League.
Superstar midfielder Kevin De Bruyne went down with a hamstring tear in the club’s first game of the season, and Man City announced earlier today that he’s expected to miss four months because of it after needing to undergo surgery.
Despite the bad breaks, Man City just keeps on rolling. It’ll be interesting to see if the injuries pile up as the season goes on, or if the culture (and roster) that manager Pep Guardiola has built is strong enough to keep stacking up wins with the next men up.
Arsenal
Next on the list is Arsenal, last season’s runners-up: if anyone’s going to unseat Man City, it’s likely going to be them. They’re still long shots to win it all, though, listed around +600.
The Gunners picked up a big win over Man City in the offseason, securing West Ham standout and defensive midfielder Declan Rice, whom Guardiola had had his eyes on, for a $130 million transfer price. They sit in a four-way tie for second place right now, their 10 points a hair behind Man City’s 12, although tiebreakers like goal differential slide them to the bottom of that dogpile.
Rice made his presence known for his new club in a big way over the weekend, scoring the game-winning goal (his first with the Gunners) in stoppage time on the way to a 3-1 win over Manchester United. That’s the 24-year-old at his best, shutting down opposing clubs with his wary defensive play while simultaneously knowing the best moments to take a gamble, making calculated risks in the hope of putting his team over the top offensively.
The Gunners will travel to take on Man City on October 8, the first of two meetings between the rival clubs: It’ll be interesting to see if Rice has another game-changing moment in a bag of tricks against the team that tried desperately to acquire him this offseason, the team that stands as the chief roadblock between Arsenal and a Premier League championship.
The Best of the Rest
It’s rare to see the championship odds tilted as heavily as they are right now this early in the season, a testament to the talent that Man City and Arsenal are working with.
The last team that’s firmly in the mix as things stand today is Liverpool: they have ten points, like Arsenal, but sit in third place as of right now. The club overhauled their roster this offseason, dismantling the forwards and midfield that carried them to a fifth-place finish last season. With all the turnover, it’s encouraging to see the new-look team gel immediately with a hot start: whether they can hang around long enough to give Man City and Arsenal a legitimate scare is another question.
Manchester United finished third last season and were connected to high-profile names like Harry Kane this offseason, hoping to re-establish themselves as the best team in Manchester by rolling the dice. That didn’t end up happening, though, and United has sputtered to two wins and two losses so far this season: they could right the ship, or they could suffer through an uncharacteristic down year as City continues to rack up accolades.
